Oscar Predictions
Posted by Jason Ihle | 2 Comments
These are my full predictions (after the jump) for the awards show of awards shows coming Sunday night. As of this writing, among the main feature films nominated, I haven’t seen Crazy Heart, Il Divo or The Last Station. I’ve also only seen 3 of the foreign language films, 2 of the documentary features and 4 of the animated shorts. As usual, I’m in the dark on documentary shorts and live action shorts.
Here is the full list of nominees.
Best Picture: It’s a close contest between Avatar and The Hurt Locker. It really could go either way but I’m setting my prediction for The Hurt Locker for two reasons: First I think it’s the superior film. Second James Cameron already had an astounding Oscar success with some other film you might have heard of. It could turn out that the Academy went gaga over Avatar, so you never know.
Should win: The Hurt Locker
Should have been nominated: What, ten films isn’t enough? I will say The Blind Side doesn’t belong on this list and could have been replaced by a dozen films without sacrificing the integrity of the nomination.
Best Director: I think regardless of what happens, this award is going to go to a woman (Kathryn Bigelow) for the first time. She already became the first woman to win the Director’s Guild Award and that is a pretty rock solid predictor of the Oscar. I also have to say she truly deserves it for crafting a truly taut thriller in The Hurt Locker.
Should win: Kathryn Bigelow
Should have been nominated: I think they got the right 5 on this list.
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges without a doubt. I’ve not seen the movie (possibly tonight), but it’s his time and by all accounts it’s a great performance.
Should win: The four I’ve seen are all solid performances, but nothing that really stands out and makes me say, “Wow!” Of the four I’d say Colin Firth is the best.
Should have been nominated: Matt Damon in The Informant! and I would replace Jeremy Renner.
Best Actress: It pains me, pains me I tell you, to predict that Sandra Bullock will win this award. She does not deserve to be here. I’m almost tempted to predict a Meryl Streep win because she is richly deserving of a third Oscar (it’s been 25 years since her last) and the Academy has been known to throw a surprise in one acting category every year. This is the only one where an upset is realistically possible. I might even wager that Gabourey Sidibe could slip through the Streep/Bullock split votes, but that’s a truly outside chance, I think.
Should win: Streep of Sidibe
Should have been nominated: You could replace Bullock with Abbie Cornish of Bright Star (the truly best actress of last year), Charlotte Gainsbourg of Antichrist or Victoria’s Emily Blunt, Michelle Pfeiffer in Cheri or Meryl Streep in It’s Complicated (except actors can’t be double nominated in the same category).
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique. Next! There’s simply no contest here.
Should win: Mo’Nique
Should have been nominated: There seemed to be a dearth of worthy supporting performances for women last year. Melanie Laurent and Diane Kruger from Inglourious Basterds could both have replaced Penelope Cruz. Julianne Moore was great (as always) in her limited role in A Single Man and I might have favored her over Anna Kendrick. But seriously, she doesn’t need a fifth nomination without a win.
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz. Next! Don’t bet against this man. He’s won ever single precursor award.
Should win: Waltz
Should have been nominated: Alec Baldwin for It’s Complicated and Peter Capaldi for In the Loop.
Original Screenplay: A tight race I’d say between Inglourious Basterds and The Hurt Locker. However, I’d say either all the love will flow toward The Hurt Locker and it will sweep this award along or the love will all go toward Avatar and this will serve as The Hurt Locker’s consolation prize. Either way, probably The Hurt Locker.
Should win: Inglourious Basterds. Tarantino rewrote WWII for crying out loud.
Should have been nominated: Bright Star.
Adapted Screenplay: Jason Reitman’s consolation prize for Up in the Air.
Should win: Up in the Air
Should have been nominated: Fantastic Mr. Fox
Animated Feature: Up without a doubt.
Should win: Up
Should have been nominated: Ponyo
Film Editing: The Hurt Locker
Art Direction: Avatar
Costume Design: The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
Cinematography: The White Ribbon
Original Score: Michael Giacchino for Up
Original Song: “The Weary Kind” from Crazy Heart
Makeup: Star Trek
Sound: Avatar
Sound Editing: Avatar
Visual Effects: Avatar
Foreign Language Film: The Secret of Their Eyes from Argentina. I’m going a bit out on a limb here. All the talk suggests The White Ribbon favored slightly over A Prophet. But I’m betting on the Argentine film because only those who’ve seen all 5 films can vote for this award and that tends to be older voters.
Documentary Feature: The Cove
Animated Short: A Matter of Loaf and Death because Nick Park has never lost an Oscar race (except to himself) in 5 nominations. My preference is for the hilarious Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty. Check it out.
Live Action Short: The New Tenants
Documentary Short: China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan
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March 5th, 2010 @
Jason, I agree with your picks for Best Score and Best Song.
If people would like to listen to excerpts from all the nominated films:http://is.gd/9Nm7O
I think it may be worthwhile to say WHY I think that “Up” will win best score and “The Weary Kind” will win for Best Song.
Of course, these are only NY opinions and anyone can disagree.
Avatar: While this may be a film the world is in love with, James Horner’s score tries a bit too hard tugging at our heartstrings for me to
really vote for this. While I love many of Horner’s scores, this one is too manipulative and typifies Hollywood scores that are too
obvious to be truly outstanding.
Fantastic Mr. Fox:
Managing to sound both BIG and SMALL at the same time, Alexandre Desplat is a master of
making this score be the perfect companion to the film.
If I were an Oscar judge, I would have had a very tough time deciding between this score and a few others. It is a delight to the ears and serves the film so beautifully.
The Hurt Locker:
An amazing score. Beltrami and Sanders blur the line between sounds effects music and scoring with a result which is both completely UNDERSTATED and subdued. What a welcome change of pace this is, especially for a war movie.
Very unique and original.
Sherlock Holmes
I must confess that I’ve always enjoyed Hans Zimmer’s music, even if he does tend to write for anyone who will pay. That said, this score sounds nothing like anything we’ve heard from him before and as any composer will tell you- that’s not an easy feat.
He uses such an interesting combination of instruments in this score. In the quirky world of Guy Ritchie, this score is the perfect companion. Zimmer’s score certainly does enhance the film.
Up:
Yes, this already won the BAFTA,Grammy and Golden Globe awards but that’s not why I’m picking it for Best Score.
Giacchino’s decision to use a character based score pays off and the viewer is treated to different renditions of similar compositions over the course of the film to depict changes in the characters.
It works well in conveying both meaning and emotion. It also adds a human layer to the computer animated film, adding more depth to character emotion than any tweak to eye movement or facial animation ever could.
The Waltz heard in this film is something the audience is not likely to forget. It has a MELODY and is hummable and we should never forget the importance of that element in music.
It is a brilliant score- so well thought out and easily one of the most interesting nominees in recent years.
Best Song: “The Weary Kind”
This award seems destined for Ryan Bingham and T-Bone Burnett’s ‘The Weary Kind’ from ‘Crazy Heart.’
The song is so integral to the story and to the Oscar-bound performance of Jeff Bridges that it has to be the winner.
No, it’s not my favorite song but I’m not sure I have one this year.:)
March 9th, 2010 @
I’d say you’re right on the money in your analysis of the musical scores. When I read The Hurt Locker was nominated for its score, my first thought was that it didn’t even have one. Then when I heard it I realized how integrated it is and how it’s designed to add to the building tension and complement the sound design.
Horner’s Avatar score was largely derivative of his other work. I kept hearing Titanic and Aliens over and over again.
I couldn’t immediately recall Desplat’s score for Fantastic Mr. Fox, but when I listened I realized it’s really damn good. He’s been one of the best and most prolific composers writing for movies in recent years. And such different scores too. Last year alone he provided musical scores for New Moon, Julie & Julia, Coco Before Chanel, A Prophet and Cheri.
Zimmer’s score for Sherlock Holmes was a real treat and I’m glad he was recognized.
Giacchino won for his Up score simply for that 5 minute montage showing the progression of Carl and Ellie’s life from marriage to her death. Really beautiful stuff.