The Insanity of Republican Neocons
Posted by Joel Friedlander | 6 Comments
This diatribe relates to THE DEATH OF ISRAEL, by DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN, published on DickMorris.com on May 24, 2009.
What aggravates me most about people like Mr. Morris and Ms. McGann is that there is no excuse for their lamentable ignorance. But of course they aren’t ignorant, they are just venal and politically self serving. There is nothing to suggest that the World is going to allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons, especially since North Korea is doing such a nice job of mucking things up in the far East. Still, Morris and McGann are fear mongers and will do anything to support the interpretation of history which is favored by the Neocons who got us into Iraq under President George W. Bush.
Morris and McGann state, “If Iran gets the bomb, it will use it to kill six million Jews. No threat of retaliation will make the slightest difference. One cannot deter a suicide bomber with the threat of death. Nor can one deter a theocracy bent on meriting admission to heaven and its virgins by one glorious act of violence. Iran would probably not launch the bomb itself, anyway, but would give it to its puppet terrorists to send to Israel so it could deny responsibility. Obama, bent on appeasement, would likely not retaliate with nuclear weapons. And Israel will be dead and gone.”
The Iranians, assuming arguendo that they can develop them, will not use nuclear weapons against Israel for several reasons, none of which relates to a love of the Jews.
Firstly:
“Jerusalem is considered the third-holiest city in Islam. … [t]he city’s lasting place in Islam … is primarily due to Muhammad’s Night of Ascension (c. 620 CE). Muslims believe Muhammad was miraculously transported one night from Mecca to the Temple Mount in Jerusalem, whereupon he ascended to Heaven to meet previous prophets of Islam. The first verse in the Qur’an’s Surat al-Isra notes the destination of Muhammad’s journey as al-Aqsa (the farthest) mosque, in reference to the location in Jerusalem. Today, the Temple Mount is topped by two Islamic landmarks intended to commemorate the event — al-Aqsa Mosque, derived from the name mentioned in the Qur’an, and the Dome of the Rock, which stands over the Foundation Stone, from which Muslims believe Muhammad ascended to Heaven.” http://www.openplaces.org/Religious_Sites_In_Jerusalem
Iran is not going to destroy the third holiest place in Islam just to chase the Jews away. Every year multiple thousands of Muslims visit the mosque to pray; the Iranians will not kill them all to wipe out the Jews, if in doing so they destroy their own religion.
Secondly, Jerusalem is 45 miles from Amman Jordan, 135 miles to Damascus, 145 miles to Beirut, 264 miles to Cairo, and less then 75 miles from every part of the West Bank http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/distances.html?n=110.
Given the fact of the wind, any use of a nuclear weapon set off in Israel would spread radiation all over the adjoining Arab countries. Millions of Arab Muslims would be killed by the actions of the Persians, who are not Arabs, and are not of the same religious tradition as the Arabs. Now, Iran is not popular with its neighbors because it is Shiite and they are Sunni, and they really do harbor a poisonous hatred about that, but in addition, it is also unpopular because it is trying to establish hegemony in the region and none of the Arab states are interested in the Persians regaining control of the region. It is therefore probably that the Arab states, would, albeit with no love of Israel, or the Jews, unite to prevent Iran from getting or using nuclear weapons in the Middle East.
Thirdly, I don’t care what Barak Obama is interested in doing with regard to the Iranians, the Congress of the United States is almost universally united behind Israel and wouldn’t allow his administration to let Israel be wiped out. The fundamentalist Christians, who have made common cause with Israel for decades would simply not allow such a course of action. If there is no Israel there will be no place for Jesus to return to and hence no Second Coming, and that simply is not to be allowed for a fundamentalist Christian. Moreover, the Christians, and there are quite as many of them as there are Muslims, are as religiously attached to Israel as the Muslims are, say to Mecca or Medina. That brings us to
Fourth, the Israelis have nuclear weapons of their own, and no matter how short the warning of an Iranian attack was, before the bombs hit Israel, the Israelis would destroy every adjoining Muslim country along with its shrines and holy places; ie., goodbye to Mecca, Medina, and every other Muslim holy place. I don’t think that the Iranians are going to do that to their own religion.
Finally, the Israelis aren’t going to allow the Iranians to develop a nuclear weapon any more then they recently let Syria develop one or allowed Iraq to develop one. The Israeli Air Force is possibly the finest in the World and would take whatever losses necessary to wipe out the Iranian threat. Where would they get the information about the location of the weapon sites? Well, the Mossad are not slackers like out CIA apparently is.
I’m finished now. If you want to attack back you can find me at AmericanMadness.com. Bring it on.
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May 26th, 2009 @
I wish I could share your optimism.
I do believe that Israel’s air force will do what it can to stop Iran’s progress when push comes to shove, but a few things to consider should it come to that:
1) Iran’s progress may be so far advanced and spread around among so many locations that Israel may not be able to destroy everything.
2) Israel would sink even lower in the estimation of the rest of the world…oh wait, that’s right…the rest of the world doesn’t give a shit about Israel.
3) Israel would have to fly over Iraqi airspace which, in the eyes of Iran, could make the US complicit in any attack and further weaken relations.
I hope Obama is playing the right diplomatic cards with Iran and dealing with them Teddy Roosevelt style.
Also, Tel Aviv is the city that would get nuked, not Jerusalem. And it doesn’t have to be a cruise missile. You said yourself that Iran would be more likely to provide nuclear weapons to Hamas or Hezbollah who could potentially attack an Israeli city dirty bomb-style.
May 26th, 2009 @
Once more, the payback from the Israeli’s would vitiate any political benefit that the Iranians would get from such an attack. There would be no question of where the Hamas or Hezbollah people got their dirty bomb and Tehran would be hit. Is Iran really interested in 20 million casualties in return for destroying Tel Aviv. I think that they know that the response to such an attack would be massive. If it was Hezbollah that carried it out that would mean the end of Lebanon and is Hamas it would mean the end of anyone’s idea of a Palestinian State forever. But, primarily it would mean the end of half of Iran’s population. Frankly, I don’t think that the Iranians are THAT religious.
May 27th, 2009 @
But I think you’re taking a very naive viewpoint toward how the world would react.
Why would the world community be any more on Israel’s side after being nuked than they have been after receiving rocket attacks numbering in the thousands.
The UN has imposed not a single resolution against Palestine for rocket attacks, yet has drafted a resolution every single time Israel retaliates.
I agree that Iran MAYBE isn’t THAT crazy, but do you doubt that the UN and Europe would give their usual warnings about Israel exercising “restraint” in their retaliation? If Israel nuked Iran in response the world outcry would be deafening and surely it would signal the end of Israel. Because if they didn’t retaliate then they would have to continue living under existential threat, only now with the fear of more nukes.
May 27th, 2009 @
Sorry, a little late, couple points:
Muslims have no qualms bombing Muslim holy places. See Golden Mosque of Samarra circa 2006 and because they didn’t do a good enough job the first time, again in 2007.
Agree with Jason that they would be less likely to strike Jersualem than Tel Aviv or Haifa.
Disagree with Joel that North Korea in the east would somehow dissuade Iran. (Actually Joel, not sure what you meant). I think Iran is looking at the world’s response to North Korea’s continued defiance (finger waving) and doesn’t see any deterrent to continuing their own enrichment. If anything, I’d argue North Korea is providing cover for the Iranians to do even more enrichment and get even closer to developing at least enough technology to develop a low grade warhead. Such a strike would probably do less damage to the surrounding Muslim nations.
Frankly, Iran scares the shit out of me. As a nation they are on the record calling for the elimination of Israel. What’s to stop them?
I’m of the opinion that Obama should send in a few cruise missiles to take out the known nuclear sites. But maybe that’s because I’m a crazed Republican neo-con.
May 27th, 2009 @
What I meant about South Korea was that their example would make it impossible for the West to allow Iran to get nuclear weapons. No one in Europe is interested in allowing the Iranians to achieve hegemony in the Middle East.
Regarding the idea of the United States bombing Iran, I don’t think that will ever happen. As to the actions of the World, as has been previously pointed out by Eric, the Iranians continue to call for the elimination of the Jewish State. Well, the Europeans have been looking to eliminate the Jews two thousand years or so; what else is new. The real point is that Iran isn’t going to be allowed to develop nuclear weapons, and actions of a violent nature will have to be taken very soon if they are going to be presented from doing so. I also pointed out earlier that the Israelis are not likely to allow the Iranians to develop that type of weaponry.
The point about North Korea is that it is a totally failed state and as such is more of a risk for violent action than the Iranians, who, regardless of how loony they act most of the time, are hardly a failed state. Once again, I would not underplay the hatred that the Arab States have for the Persians. They are Shiite and that is a heresy to the Arabs, and they aren’t Arabs and most of the Middle Eastern countries will not allow them to take over control of the region.
This of course would be a good time for severe sanctions because Russia’s oil revenues are severely down from last year and they will not offer the same level of support to the Iranians that they did when the United States last sought severe sanctions. If such a diplomatic move didn’t work physical force could be used, but that would pub Obama in the same class as Bush in the eyes of the World and I don’t think he wants that.
As to the destruction of the Jews, that has been tried before. In Ukraine, always a home for lovers of the Jews between 100 and 500,000 were murdered between 1648-49. Evidence is below, although there are others with lower estimates of the numbers.
* “This situation changed for the worse in 1648-49, the years in which the Chmelnicki massacres took place. These persecutions, which swept over a large part of the Polish Commonwealth, wrought havoc with the Jewry of that country. Many Jewish communities were practically annihilated by the ruthless Cossack bands, and many more were disintegrated by the flight of their members to escape the enemy… The Jews of the Ukraine, Podolia and Eastern Galicia bore the brunt of the massacres. It is estimated that about two hundred thousand Jews were killed in these provinces during the fatal years of 1648-49.” Meyer Waxman. History of Jewish Literature Part 3, Kessinger Publishing, 2003, ISBN 0766143708, p. 20.
* “…carried out in 1648 and 1649 by the Cossacks of the Ukraine, led by Bogdan Chmielnicki. The anti-Semitic outburst took the lives of from 150,000 to 200,000 Jews.” Michael Clodfelter. Warfare and Armed Conflicts: A Statistical Reference to Casualty and Other Figures, 1500-1999, McFarland & Co Inc, 2002, p. 56.
* “Between 100,000-500,000 Jews were murdered by the Cossacks during the Chmielnicki massacres. Zev Garber, Bruce Zuckerman. Double Takes: Thinking and Rethinking Issues of Modern Judaism in Ancient Contexts, University Press of America, 2004, ISBN 076182894X, p. 77, footnote 17.
* “After defeating the Polish army, the Cossacks joined with the Polish peasantry, murdering over 100,000 Jews.” Chmielnicki, Bohdan, The Columbia Encyclopedia, Sixth Edition, 2001-05.
* “In 1648-55 the Cossack under Bogdan Chmielnicki (1593-1657) joined with the Tartars in the Ukraine to rid themselves of Polish rule… Before the decade was over, more than 100,000 Jews had been slaughtered.” Robert Melvin Spector. World Without Civilization: Mass Murder and the Holocaust, History, and Analysis, University Press of America, 2005, ISBN 0761829636, p. 77.
* “By the time the Cossacks and the Poles signed a peace treaty in 1654, 700 Jewish communities had been destroyed and more than 100,000 Jews killed”. Sol Scharfstein. Jewish History and You, KTAV Publishing House, 2004, ISBN 0881258067, p. 42.
My point in all this is that while the Iranians rant and rave, in all of their history they haven’t killed anything like the number of Jews that the Cossacks killed in a one year period. I just love the Ukrainians. Remember, they were the ones that joined up with the Nazis when Ukraine was invaded in 1941.
As a Jew, I worry more about the Europeans than about the Iranians.
Remember, the only country in the Middle East with nuclear bombs that can be delivered is Israel. The Israelis are not going to allow the Iranians, or anyone else in the Middle East get a deliverable nuclear weapon stock.
May 28th, 2009 @
Saw this today, a suicide bomber blew up a mosque in southern Iran. I submit this as further evidence that certain nut-job leaders of Iran would have no qualms blowing up holy sites if it meant the destruction of Israel.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8072795.stm